...and it's a good thing- I would have been all over GA Tech- I thought they were the lock of the year to cover against the U.
For what it's worth, this day has been interesting. Gators don't cover (I didn't think they would), Washington upsets the apple cart, and BYU is playing the program's most important game in years.
A handful of teams are halfway to bowl eligibility, including some you figured (Penn St, Florida), and some you didn't (Indiana, Michigan).
4-4 last weekend, Colorado St. was a bad choice (what was I doing seeking out 1-AA lines anyways?)
See you on the flipside.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Friday, September 11, 2009
Week 2 Picks
This was the first time I walked away from the pay window down after a week one, after Rutgers made me feel like a blooming idiot, and NOT playing the Alabama/VaTech game and Miami/Florida State... I stumbled to a 2-3 record on the weekend.
Maybe it is tougher the more you know...
These are my week 2 picks:
Army pick'em Duke
BYU -18 Tulane
SMU +12 UAB
TCU -11 Virginia
Memphis pick'em Middle Tennessee State
Colorado State -14 1/2 Weber State
Nebraska -21 Arkansas State
Louisiana Tech vs. Navy Over 50 1/2
Maybe it is tougher the more you know...
These are my week 2 picks:
Army pick'em Duke
BYU -18 Tulane
SMU +12 UAB
TCU -11 Virginia
Memphis pick'em Middle Tennessee State
Colorado State -14 1/2 Weber State
Nebraska -21 Arkansas State
Louisiana Tech vs. Navy Over 50 1/2
Saturday, September 5, 2009
Week 1 picks
Here's what I like. Odds are as of this morning at vegasinsider.com
Western Michigan + 13 1/2 (Michigan)
UConn - 3 1/2 (Ohio)
San Jose State +34 1/2 USC
Rutgers -5 Cincinnati
Buffalo +10 UTEP
Western Michigan + 13 1/2 (Michigan)
UConn - 3 1/2 (Ohio)
San Jose State +34 1/2 USC
Rutgers -5 Cincinnati
Buffalo +10 UTEP
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Lou Holtz isn't crazy...
He's just optimistic.
Lou Holtz has been dragged over the coals over the last few days because of his prediction that Notre Dame is going to play Florida in the BCS National Championship game.
It's not as outrageous as you think. Honest!
Is Notre Dame the second best team in the country? No. However, how often are the participants of a BCS National Championship game without controversy?
Just look at Notre Dame's Schedule:
09/05/09 vs. Nevada
09/12/09 at Michigan
09/19/09 vs. Michigan State
09/26/09 at Purdue
10/03/09 vs. Washington
10/17/09 vs. USC
10/24/09 vs. Boston College
10/31/09 vs. Washington State (San Antonio, Texas)
11/07/09 vs. Navy
11/14/09 at Pittsburgh
11/21/09 vs. Connecticut
11/28/09 at Stanford
Only one game, USC, looks like an auto-loss. Beyond that, the toughest games are home against a tough Michigan State team, and games at Pittsburgh and Stanford. Pittsburgh is a perennial underachiever, and Stanford is improved, but I'll take a wait-and-see approach with them. Notre Dame should win all three.
Beyond that, you can take a systematic approach to the Irish playing in the title game by eliminating conferences in turn.
The most ideal situation for a one-loss Notre Dame is if they play USC tough in a losing effort, perhaps a single-digit loss, then USC loses soundly to Ohio State in the road, then has their annual Pac-10 hiccup. If Ohio State doesn't win the Big-10, or loses a game late in the season that it shouldn't it (Iowa?) muddies the picture even further. Penn State? Their non-conference schedule is very weak, and an 11-1 Notre Dame would likely get the nod over an 11-1 Nittany Lion squad. Nobody else in the Big-10 seems to be a threat. I can't imagine Illinois or Michigan State playing for the title unless one of them ran the table, and if Michigan State were to do that, then Notre Dame's slot has already been knocked out. In the Pac-10, maybe Cal? Prove it to me. They could lose against USC and win out, but a one-loss USC would take precedent.
Texas and Oklahoma would likely need to have two losses apiece to be knocked out, due to the preseason expectations. One easy way for things to fall in the Irish' favor would be if the Big-12 North winner- likely Nebraska, were to defeat the South winner in the conference championship. That's shooting for the moon, though, as the South is the best division in football. If Oklahoma State is as good as advertised, and they can steal a game from one of those teams, then crazy things can happen. Last year's three-way tie for the top of the Big-12 south was evidence of that.
Would a one-loss Notre dame get in over a one-loss SEC West team that lost to Florida in the conference championship there? Absolutely- they don't want a quick rematch. The Ohio State/Michigan situation a few years ago is proof of that.
Nobody from the ACC or Big-East merits consideration in a one-loss scenario. Virginia Tech has the makings of an awful offensive year, and Georgia Tech can't possibly run the table, can they? Rutgers has a schedule they could run, but who's going to get the first look: a 12-0 Rutgers, or an 11-1 Notre Dame? That's an easy one to answer.
Boise State? Only if they beat Oregon senseless, run the table, and Oregon proceeds to manhandle everyone in the Pac-10 by five scores. Even then, no.
Any other team in the country (in a BCS conference, of course) would have to go 12-0 to be at the BCS Championship game without a ticket.
Based on a regular season where each team were to have one loss against their best opponent (and win their conference title), this is the likely pecking order for the National Championship game:
1) Florida. Not even close. They shouldn't even be in this discussion until they lose a game.
2 & 2a) Texas/Oklahoma- If you're one of these two teams, you can lose to the other, but not to anyone else on your schedule except maybe beat the other then lose to Oklahoma State. The loser of this game will have the inside track to the National Championship game if the other loses elsewhere. If the winner runs the table then the point is moot. Last year's scenario (three teams with one loss in the same division) created all sorts of debate, and was somewhat of a debacle, until Texas Tech got punched in the head by Ole Miss.
3 & 3a) Ohio St/USC- this is the exact same situation as the above game. Lose this game, and you've still got a shot if you run the table. Win this game, you still have to be damn sure not to slip up elsewhere.
4) Notre Dame
5) Penn State/Cal
There's one other thing you can think about, but it's an extreme longshot: A runner-up in the SEC West with one conference loss that did NOT play Florida in the regular season (follow along). The likelihood of that happening? Not as far-fetched as you'd think. There are three teams in the west that don't play Florida: Auburn, Alabama, and Ole Miss- you can scratch Auburn off now. It would take this scenario: Ole Miss or Alabama loses to the other, then runs the rest of their schedule, and the winner of their game wins out the rest of the regular season and loses to Florida in the SEC Championship. It's reasonable.
Alabama is probably the better call of the two due to their nonconference game against Virginia Tech. Again though, the BCS doesn't want two teams from the same conference playing for the title. Plus, it's hard to justify a team that didn't win their conference playing in the championship.
Maybe Lou is on to something here. With a nudge, he just convinced me that it is indeed viable.
Lou Holtz has been dragged over the coals over the last few days because of his prediction that Notre Dame is going to play Florida in the BCS National Championship game.
It's not as outrageous as you think. Honest!
Is Notre Dame the second best team in the country? No. However, how often are the participants of a BCS National Championship game without controversy?
Just look at Notre Dame's Schedule:
09/05/09 vs. Nevada
09/12/09 at Michigan
09/19/09 vs. Michigan State
09/26/09 at Purdue
10/03/09 vs. Washington
10/17/09 vs. USC
10/24/09 vs. Boston College
10/31/09 vs. Washington State (San Antonio, Texas)
11/07/09 vs. Navy
11/14/09 at Pittsburgh
11/21/09 vs. Connecticut
11/28/09 at Stanford
Only one game, USC, looks like an auto-loss. Beyond that, the toughest games are home against a tough Michigan State team, and games at Pittsburgh and Stanford. Pittsburgh is a perennial underachiever, and Stanford is improved, but I'll take a wait-and-see approach with them. Notre Dame should win all three.
Beyond that, you can take a systematic approach to the Irish playing in the title game by eliminating conferences in turn.
The most ideal situation for a one-loss Notre Dame is if they play USC tough in a losing effort, perhaps a single-digit loss, then USC loses soundly to Ohio State in the road, then has their annual Pac-10 hiccup. If Ohio State doesn't win the Big-10, or loses a game late in the season that it shouldn't it (Iowa?) muddies the picture even further. Penn State? Their non-conference schedule is very weak, and an 11-1 Notre Dame would likely get the nod over an 11-1 Nittany Lion squad. Nobody else in the Big-10 seems to be a threat. I can't imagine Illinois or Michigan State playing for the title unless one of them ran the table, and if Michigan State were to do that, then Notre Dame's slot has already been knocked out. In the Pac-10, maybe Cal? Prove it to me. They could lose against USC and win out, but a one-loss USC would take precedent.
Texas and Oklahoma would likely need to have two losses apiece to be knocked out, due to the preseason expectations. One easy way for things to fall in the Irish' favor would be if the Big-12 North winner- likely Nebraska, were to defeat the South winner in the conference championship. That's shooting for the moon, though, as the South is the best division in football. If Oklahoma State is as good as advertised, and they can steal a game from one of those teams, then crazy things can happen. Last year's three-way tie for the top of the Big-12 south was evidence of that.
Would a one-loss Notre dame get in over a one-loss SEC West team that lost to Florida in the conference championship there? Absolutely- they don't want a quick rematch. The Ohio State/Michigan situation a few years ago is proof of that.
Nobody from the ACC or Big-East merits consideration in a one-loss scenario. Virginia Tech has the makings of an awful offensive year, and Georgia Tech can't possibly run the table, can they? Rutgers has a schedule they could run, but who's going to get the first look: a 12-0 Rutgers, or an 11-1 Notre Dame? That's an easy one to answer.
Boise State? Only if they beat Oregon senseless, run the table, and Oregon proceeds to manhandle everyone in the Pac-10 by five scores. Even then, no.
Any other team in the country (in a BCS conference, of course) would have to go 12-0 to be at the BCS Championship game without a ticket.
Based on a regular season where each team were to have one loss against their best opponent (and win their conference title), this is the likely pecking order for the National Championship game:
1) Florida. Not even close. They shouldn't even be in this discussion until they lose a game.
2 & 2a) Texas/Oklahoma- If you're one of these two teams, you can lose to the other, but not to anyone else on your schedule except maybe beat the other then lose to Oklahoma State. The loser of this game will have the inside track to the National Championship game if the other loses elsewhere. If the winner runs the table then the point is moot. Last year's scenario (three teams with one loss in the same division) created all sorts of debate, and was somewhat of a debacle, until Texas Tech got punched in the head by Ole Miss.
3 & 3a) Ohio St/USC- this is the exact same situation as the above game. Lose this game, and you've still got a shot if you run the table. Win this game, you still have to be damn sure not to slip up elsewhere.
4) Notre Dame
5) Penn State/Cal
There's one other thing you can think about, but it's an extreme longshot: A runner-up in the SEC West with one conference loss that did NOT play Florida in the regular season (follow along). The likelihood of that happening? Not as far-fetched as you'd think. There are three teams in the west that don't play Florida: Auburn, Alabama, and Ole Miss- you can scratch Auburn off now. It would take this scenario: Ole Miss or Alabama loses to the other, then runs the rest of their schedule, and the winner of their game wins out the rest of the regular season and loses to Florida in the SEC Championship. It's reasonable.
Alabama is probably the better call of the two due to their nonconference game against Virginia Tech. Again though, the BCS doesn't want two teams from the same conference playing for the title. Plus, it's hard to justify a team that didn't win their conference playing in the championship.
Maybe Lou is on to something here. With a nudge, he just convinced me that it is indeed viable.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
First Preseason Top 25
It just wouldn't be a College Football Site without my top-25, now would it?
#1) Florida- Don't come here for Florida news. Until they lose a game I've got nothing. Heck, it'll probably take two losses to knock them out of the title picture, maybe 3. They return their entire two-deep defense (only two other teams in the country return 10 starters, Central Michigan and Arkansas), and some freak at QB who is good with a blade.
#2) Texas- The race for the right to be Florida's opponent in the BCS title game is tight, and between the next 3 teams, it's anyone's guess. Barring a few ridiculous upsets, it will likely come down to two games, the first being the Red River Shootout (the second being OSU/USC early on). Colt McCoy comes back for one more whirl at a title, and one more chance to win a Heisman. If Texas wins against Oklahoma October 17 in Dallas and holds serve the rest of the way, it may be his for the taking.
3) USC- It's always just a question of where in the top-5 they fit... The argument is so double-sided with Pete Carroll's teams. They lose a couple NFL practice squads worth of players year-in, year-out, and those former Parade All-Americans have to be replaced... with more former Parade All-Americans. Until a recruiting scandal REALLY sticks, it'll be more of the same- USC is in charge of the Pac-10, as well as its own national championship aspirations, as long as it doesn't lose focus against 40-point underdogs. The game with Ohio State looms large, particularly if QB Aaron Corp isn't ready. Matt Barkley is obviously talented, but will he be ready to step into the Horseshoe in his second start? What's the deal with former Arkansas #1 recruit Mitch Mustain? I thought he was going to be the MAN at USC.
4) Oklahoma- Again, it's all about the Red River Shootout. One interesting item on the schedule- a game at the "U" October 3. I'm not saying that Miami has a chance, just that it's an interesting item on the schedule. Sam Bradford's shadow on the national scene can make you forget he has two 1,000 yard backs to hand off to in Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray. They return tons of skill position talent and 9 of 11 starters on defense, but will the offensive trenches be ready for another run at the title game?
5) Alabama- Poor Nick Saban. If you remember, this was supposed to be the year where the Tide were supposed to be making a run, then Florida made everyone forget all about that. Saban has brought successive top-3 recruiting classes to 'Bama, and now that talent starts to mature. They do play on the road at "trendy" pick Ole Miss and perennial top-10 team Virginia Tech, but with a win at Oxford, they could very well find themselves in a position to throw one hell of a wrench into the national title picture in the SEC Championship game... or throw themselves into the discussion.
6) Ohio State- Same old story: Tressel wins a mediocre BCS conference and either gets snubbed for the National Championship game, or they get waxed by SEC juggernaut du jour. The interesting thing is that some people are high on Penn State and Illinois to steal the conference. I'm not a believer yet, though if any time was ideal to take advantage of OSU, now is the time, as their experience is much lower than it has been in years (under 40 returning lettermen, a low number for a big program).
7) Georgia Tech- This is where things can get interesting. You've got the two above tiers (Tier one is Florida, tier 2 are the likely bridesmaid candidates), and now it becomes a landscape of teams where an upset or two could mean extra exposure on SportsCenter. Tech is a fascinating team to watch, and I'll be the first to admit I was completely underestimating the genius that is Paul Johnson (I picked Tech to win 4 games heading into last year, and they finished 9-4). He took Chan Gailey's recruits and installed the triple-option offense. I figured that was a recipe for disaster. Well, a whopping 18 starters return for a team that took to his system immediately. Tech is one of those teams that could make Saturday night recap shows very interesting late into the fall. Forget about the loss to LSU (a 38-3 drubbing)- they're too well coached to have a long memory about a team they won't be seeing at least until bowl season. Forget Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, and Penn State- THIS is your true darkhorse.
8) Oklahoma State- With T. Boone Pickens' money, you'd think they could lobby for a re-alignment in the Big-12. Perhaps an East/West configuration where all these South division teams wouldn't have to face Texas AND Oklahoma every year. The "other" OSU returns plenty of gas on offense, and will probably be the best team in the country to finish third in their division. A win against Georgia right off the bat would give them instant street cred... at least until a Halloween showdown with Texas. I believe three games against top-10 teams is too tall an order to overcome... but if they take care of business, these Cowboys could find themselves anointed "America's Team" to battle all things Tebow.
9) Georgia- Lost Stafford. Lost Moreno. Lost Massaquoi. This is exactly where Richt likes to be headed into the season: off the radar. Beating the bejeezus out of Hawaii and returning top skill position talent, UGA was picked by most rational thinking fans as the preseason #1 last year. By the time they were 4-0, they had already slipped to #3 because they weren't winning like a "normal" #1 team. Alabama proceeded to remove any national title aspirations by de-pantsing them in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the 41-30 score (it was 31-0 at the half, and I remember being in the bar, just laughing by that point). None of that is Richt's style. He wants to go about his business and let his teams do the talking, which they usually do. They have the usual SEC slate (Florida, LSU, Tennessee), but their non-conference schedule is very strong (The annual Atlanta game with Tech, Oklahoma State, and a 'they were good at the time' Arizona State). 10-2 and outside-looking-in when the BCS shakes down is a reasonable expectation.
10) California- I never have like Cal- can't trust 'em. Berkley scares me for reasons far beyond the football field. However, this Cal team is very, very good. I just can't trust Tedford. I could totally see them beating USC... after having lost at Minnesota. I could see them being 10-0 heading into games at Stanford and Washington... and losing them both. It's not that Tedford can't win the big games... though he is pretty much rolling doughnuts in them (other than a win at Oregon in '07 that vaulted them to number two in the nation, his record in games that define the program is abysmal- they lost the following week at home to an unranked Oregon State). The Pac-10 is down, and the non-conference slate is manageable. You may be looking at a team that could finish 11-1, but HAS to hope that USC plays for the national title to see the Rose Bowl. They do have a lot of talent coming back, but still, Tedford.
11) Ole Miss- Ah, here they are- everyone's preseason darlings. While I think Jevan Snead will be the #1 overall pick next year (at least, the first quarterback taken, if the Lions go back-to-back), I can't buy into the hype without reservation. Yes, beating Texas Tech was impressive as well as unexpected, but the Red Raider's balloon was already deflated by not playing in a BCS bowl. Snead is the real deal, but he's going to have to improve his accuracy (56.3% won't get you a Heisman ceremony invite), and they lost an anchor on each side of the trenches (Peria Jerry on D, Michael Oher on Snead's blind side). So, if you collect football cards, remember Snead's name, but don't bet the farm on Houston Nutt's National Championship. Granted, the schedule is favorable (no Florida, no Georgia, and Tennessee, Alabama, and LSU all come to Oxford), but it's hard to see Ole Miss doing it all year long. Look for a brief visit to the top-5, and gently falling to earth in the Capital One Bowl, where they can massacre someone like Penn State.
12) Notre Dame- Wait for it... wait for it... The Irish are good again. Not great, but good. In 2009, that may be all they need to get back to relevance. This is Charlie Weis' defining year- a down schedule, all of HIS guys are in place, and he now has no excuses. These factors alone make Notre Dame a must-watch, and Jimmy Claussen is a very fun guy to see under center. The thing about the Irish is because they have a huge following, and don't have conference restrictions, you'll likely see them in a BCS bowl, whether they deserve it or not. They only have three games that seem like potential battles (USC, Michigan State, at Pitt), and even losing all of those (which they won't), 9-3 still means a BCS game for this program. They could realistically go 11-1 losing to USC, and find themselves campaigning for a BCS Championship date. They'll always get the benefit of the doubt. They're Notre Dame. Get the haters together.
13) Illinois- Arrelious Benn might be the first wideout taken #1 overall since Keyshawn, and the man who would be responsible, Juice Williams, may be the most exciting player in college football. Strong praise indeed, but The offence returns mostly intact from a team that can keep pace with anyone. The defense will be retooled, but Ron Zook has been recruiting well. This team can't be considered among the elite, but perhaps a spoiler if they take a win from either Penn State or Ohio State. The non-conference schedule is interesting (Missouri, @ Cincinnati, Fresno State), but not nearly as imposing as it would have been last year.
14) TCU- For the first time in years, TCU doesn't have a Big-12 team on its schedule. That's very important, as they usually faced either Oklahoma or Texas along the way. This year their big game is at... Clemson? This may be the time to catch them, as Clemson is in search of an identity. The Mountain West is fast becoming the clear leader of "Non-BCS conferences", and perhaps will someday soon find themselves in a watered-down BCS bowl of their own- they deserve it at least as much as the Big East. As always with TCU, it's all about the defense. Gary Patterson refuses to have his teams out-conditioned and out-muscled.
15) Penn State- Another preseason hype beneficiary, I just can't comprehend it. Their non-conference schedule is shameful (Akron, Syracuse, Temple, and Eastern Illinois), and an 8 or 9 win season is all but assured. I just don't see them in the national title discussion. They only return 9 starters, and they may very well be battling Ohio State November 7th for the conference title (before that, only a game at Illinois poses a true challenge), but this will be a hollow Penn State team, not unlike 2005, where a loss to Michigan kept them from making a case to disrupt the USC/Texas classic. 10 wins? Sure. But what's it worth?
16) LSU- Some would have me punished for ranking LSU this low... but this team has to prove it. They can do that by beating Florida in Death Valley- but seriously? Their schedule is simply brutal: Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi are all on the road, and then there's still Florida. You could play in Les Miles' front yard and it still won't matter. Maybe the talent level this year is better, but not enough to overcome this slate. I see an 8 win season, maybe 9 if they sneak a win from one of those three road games.
17) Virginia Tech- I've never liked Virginia Tech, but I can't argue with Frank Beemer's consistent success. I would have rated them higher, but sadly, they lost leading rusher Darren Evans (1,265) this week to a torn ACL. I also don't like Tyrod Taylor. Without the 'go' provided by Evans, this team is in serious trouble. Someone will emerge- with programs like this, someone always does, but double-digit wins may be out of reach for the Hokies, a rarity (last time they didn't hit 10 wins: 2003).
18) Boise State- Their whole season hinges on the season opener- a rare trip for a top-25 team to the blue turf (Oregon). If they win, look for them to run the table and end up in a screaming match with the Mountain West winner for a BCS slot. If not, it's back to the Poinsettia bowl with you!
19) Michigan State- Nobody -and I mean nobody- is talking about this team. Mark Dantonio has the most talent he's had since arriving on campus, and this team has won 7 and 9 games the last two years. Without Ohio State on the schedule and Penn State at home, they could very well win the conference by virtue of that silly Big-10 tiebreaker (longer drought wins? Seriously?). Javon Ringer and Brian Hoyer are big losses, but Dantonio is a talented coach that will find a way. Besides, Drew Stanton never won anything.
20) Rutgers- Before you gag, look at their schedule. It's PERFECT.
Non-conference cupcakes? Howard, FIU, Army, Texas Southern- check. Maryland isn't necessarily a cupcake, but is less than imposing.
All tough conference games at home? Defending Champ Cincinnati week 1 minus 10 starters from 2008 on defense. Pittsburgh after a week off when they're on a short week. South Florida comes to Jersey in November. West Virginia? We'll see.
By the time that last game comes around, the conference title may already be decided, and Rutgers may be playing for a top 5 ranking. Now, a national championship game appearance is out of the question, but 12-0 in the regular season with an Orange Bowl matchup? Why not?
21) Florida State- the new status quo for FSU: 8 or 9 wins, potential ACC championship game appearance. Their non-conference slate is interesting: at Florida, at BYU, home against USF. Christian Ponder is the closest thing to a QB the Seminoles have had in ages, and there's always going to be Sunday-bound talent all over the field. I just think Bowdan may have lost his touch. He can bring them in, but only because everyone knows that FSU sends an obscene amount of players to the pros- they'll always get players, but maybe those players lack direction.
22) BYU- Will only go as far as Max Hall takes them. The top of the Mountain West compares favorable with the Big East, and even perhaps the ACC. Watch for BYU to sling the ball all over the field, put up a lot of points, and allow a lot of points to teams with decent offenses. An opening game with Oklahoma in Arlington quells most BCS bowl discussion.
23) North Carolina- The ACC has a lot of depth, but not a true national title contender. Week-in, week-out, each game is going to be a headache. Butch Davis is a top-flight recruiter, bringing top talent not seen in Chapel Hill this decade... at least not on the football field. QB TJ Yates has settled in nicely as a leader, and one of these days DT Marvin Austin is going to earn his reputation. A middle-tier ACC team perhaps, but good enough to be taken seriously by the big boys now that they have a big name running the show.
24) Central Michigan- Last time I was this high on CMU, they promptly went out and got crushed by Kansas 52-7. Then again, that Kansas team was better than anyone dreamed. The last two years the Chippewas could be classified as a disappointment, having won 8 games back to back with losses in the Motor City Bowl. QB Dan LeFevour is the best player you've never seen. Tim Tebow is to ESPN what Dan LeFevour is for the regional Fox Sports crowd. Again, their nonconference schedule is "reasonable"... a game at Arizona to lead off, with U of A breaking in a new QB. Following that, a game at Michigan State. Beyond that, a game at a far worse Boston College team than you remember. 10 wins in the regular season in my opinion warrants top-25 consideration, no matter what conference you play in.
25) Wake Forest- They have perhaps the best coach in college football in Jim Grobe- if he's not the best, then nobody gets more out of less. They also get one more year out of one of the best football stories in Riley Skinner. He came out of nowhere as a freshman to lead Wake to the Orange Bowl. One last run might see them play for the ACC title. Unlikely, but they're worth a look, and as I said, nobody is better coached.
#1) Florida- Don't come here for Florida news. Until they lose a game I've got nothing. Heck, it'll probably take two losses to knock them out of the title picture, maybe 3. They return their entire two-deep defense (only two other teams in the country return 10 starters, Central Michigan and Arkansas), and some freak at QB who is good with a blade.
#2) Texas- The race for the right to be Florida's opponent in the BCS title game is tight, and between the next 3 teams, it's anyone's guess. Barring a few ridiculous upsets, it will likely come down to two games, the first being the Red River Shootout (the second being OSU/USC early on). Colt McCoy comes back for one more whirl at a title, and one more chance to win a Heisman. If Texas wins against Oklahoma October 17 in Dallas and holds serve the rest of the way, it may be his for the taking.
3) USC- It's always just a question of where in the top-5 they fit... The argument is so double-sided with Pete Carroll's teams. They lose a couple NFL practice squads worth of players year-in, year-out, and those former Parade All-Americans have to be replaced... with more former Parade All-Americans. Until a recruiting scandal REALLY sticks, it'll be more of the same- USC is in charge of the Pac-10, as well as its own national championship aspirations, as long as it doesn't lose focus against 40-point underdogs. The game with Ohio State looms large, particularly if QB Aaron Corp isn't ready. Matt Barkley is obviously talented, but will he be ready to step into the Horseshoe in his second start? What's the deal with former Arkansas #1 recruit Mitch Mustain? I thought he was going to be the MAN at USC.
4) Oklahoma- Again, it's all about the Red River Shootout. One interesting item on the schedule- a game at the "U" October 3. I'm not saying that Miami has a chance, just that it's an interesting item on the schedule. Sam Bradford's shadow on the national scene can make you forget he has two 1,000 yard backs to hand off to in Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray. They return tons of skill position talent and 9 of 11 starters on defense, but will the offensive trenches be ready for another run at the title game?
5) Alabama- Poor Nick Saban. If you remember, this was supposed to be the year where the Tide were supposed to be making a run, then Florida made everyone forget all about that. Saban has brought successive top-3 recruiting classes to 'Bama, and now that talent starts to mature. They do play on the road at "trendy" pick Ole Miss and perennial top-10 team Virginia Tech, but with a win at Oxford, they could very well find themselves in a position to throw one hell of a wrench into the national title picture in the SEC Championship game... or throw themselves into the discussion.
6) Ohio State- Same old story: Tressel wins a mediocre BCS conference and either gets snubbed for the National Championship game, or they get waxed by SEC juggernaut du jour. The interesting thing is that some people are high on Penn State and Illinois to steal the conference. I'm not a believer yet, though if any time was ideal to take advantage of OSU, now is the time, as their experience is much lower than it has been in years (under 40 returning lettermen, a low number for a big program).
7) Georgia Tech- This is where things can get interesting. You've got the two above tiers (Tier one is Florida, tier 2 are the likely bridesmaid candidates), and now it becomes a landscape of teams where an upset or two could mean extra exposure on SportsCenter. Tech is a fascinating team to watch, and I'll be the first to admit I was completely underestimating the genius that is Paul Johnson (I picked Tech to win 4 games heading into last year, and they finished 9-4). He took Chan Gailey's recruits and installed the triple-option offense. I figured that was a recipe for disaster. Well, a whopping 18 starters return for a team that took to his system immediately. Tech is one of those teams that could make Saturday night recap shows very interesting late into the fall. Forget about the loss to LSU (a 38-3 drubbing)- they're too well coached to have a long memory about a team they won't be seeing at least until bowl season. Forget Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, and Penn State- THIS is your true darkhorse.
8) Oklahoma State- With T. Boone Pickens' money, you'd think they could lobby for a re-alignment in the Big-12. Perhaps an East/West configuration where all these South division teams wouldn't have to face Texas AND Oklahoma every year. The "other" OSU returns plenty of gas on offense, and will probably be the best team in the country to finish third in their division. A win against Georgia right off the bat would give them instant street cred... at least until a Halloween showdown with Texas. I believe three games against top-10 teams is too tall an order to overcome... but if they take care of business, these Cowboys could find themselves anointed "America's Team" to battle all things Tebow.
9) Georgia- Lost Stafford. Lost Moreno. Lost Massaquoi. This is exactly where Richt likes to be headed into the season: off the radar. Beating the bejeezus out of Hawaii and returning top skill position talent, UGA was picked by most rational thinking fans as the preseason #1 last year. By the time they were 4-0, they had already slipped to #3 because they weren't winning like a "normal" #1 team. Alabama proceeded to remove any national title aspirations by de-pantsing them in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the 41-30 score (it was 31-0 at the half, and I remember being in the bar, just laughing by that point). None of that is Richt's style. He wants to go about his business and let his teams do the talking, which they usually do. They have the usual SEC slate (Florida, LSU, Tennessee), but their non-conference schedule is very strong (The annual Atlanta game with Tech, Oklahoma State, and a 'they were good at the time' Arizona State). 10-2 and outside-looking-in when the BCS shakes down is a reasonable expectation.
10) California- I never have like Cal- can't trust 'em. Berkley scares me for reasons far beyond the football field. However, this Cal team is very, very good. I just can't trust Tedford. I could totally see them beating USC... after having lost at Minnesota. I could see them being 10-0 heading into games at Stanford and Washington... and losing them both. It's not that Tedford can't win the big games... though he is pretty much rolling doughnuts in them (other than a win at Oregon in '07 that vaulted them to number two in the nation, his record in games that define the program is abysmal- they lost the following week at home to an unranked Oregon State). The Pac-10 is down, and the non-conference slate is manageable. You may be looking at a team that could finish 11-1, but HAS to hope that USC plays for the national title to see the Rose Bowl. They do have a lot of talent coming back, but still, Tedford.
11) Ole Miss- Ah, here they are- everyone's preseason darlings. While I think Jevan Snead will be the #1 overall pick next year (at least, the first quarterback taken, if the Lions go back-to-back), I can't buy into the hype without reservation. Yes, beating Texas Tech was impressive as well as unexpected, but the Red Raider's balloon was already deflated by not playing in a BCS bowl. Snead is the real deal, but he's going to have to improve his accuracy (56.3% won't get you a Heisman ceremony invite), and they lost an anchor on each side of the trenches (Peria Jerry on D, Michael Oher on Snead's blind side). So, if you collect football cards, remember Snead's name, but don't bet the farm on Houston Nutt's National Championship. Granted, the schedule is favorable (no Florida, no Georgia, and Tennessee, Alabama, and LSU all come to Oxford), but it's hard to see Ole Miss doing it all year long. Look for a brief visit to the top-5, and gently falling to earth in the Capital One Bowl, where they can massacre someone like Penn State.
12) Notre Dame- Wait for it... wait for it... The Irish are good again. Not great, but good. In 2009, that may be all they need to get back to relevance. This is Charlie Weis' defining year- a down schedule, all of HIS guys are in place, and he now has no excuses. These factors alone make Notre Dame a must-watch, and Jimmy Claussen is a very fun guy to see under center. The thing about the Irish is because they have a huge following, and don't have conference restrictions, you'll likely see them in a BCS bowl, whether they deserve it or not. They only have three games that seem like potential battles (USC, Michigan State, at Pitt), and even losing all of those (which they won't), 9-3 still means a BCS game for this program. They could realistically go 11-1 losing to USC, and find themselves campaigning for a BCS Championship date. They'll always get the benefit of the doubt. They're Notre Dame. Get the haters together.
13) Illinois- Arrelious Benn might be the first wideout taken #1 overall since Keyshawn, and the man who would be responsible, Juice Williams, may be the most exciting player in college football. Strong praise indeed, but The offence returns mostly intact from a team that can keep pace with anyone. The defense will be retooled, but Ron Zook has been recruiting well. This team can't be considered among the elite, but perhaps a spoiler if they take a win from either Penn State or Ohio State. The non-conference schedule is interesting (Missouri, @ Cincinnati, Fresno State), but not nearly as imposing as it would have been last year.
14) TCU- For the first time in years, TCU doesn't have a Big-12 team on its schedule. That's very important, as they usually faced either Oklahoma or Texas along the way. This year their big game is at... Clemson? This may be the time to catch them, as Clemson is in search of an identity. The Mountain West is fast becoming the clear leader of "Non-BCS conferences", and perhaps will someday soon find themselves in a watered-down BCS bowl of their own- they deserve it at least as much as the Big East. As always with TCU, it's all about the defense. Gary Patterson refuses to have his teams out-conditioned and out-muscled.
15) Penn State- Another preseason hype beneficiary, I just can't comprehend it. Their non-conference schedule is shameful (Akron, Syracuse, Temple, and Eastern Illinois), and an 8 or 9 win season is all but assured. I just don't see them in the national title discussion. They only return 9 starters, and they may very well be battling Ohio State November 7th for the conference title (before that, only a game at Illinois poses a true challenge), but this will be a hollow Penn State team, not unlike 2005, where a loss to Michigan kept them from making a case to disrupt the USC/Texas classic. 10 wins? Sure. But what's it worth?
16) LSU- Some would have me punished for ranking LSU this low... but this team has to prove it. They can do that by beating Florida in Death Valley- but seriously? Their schedule is simply brutal: Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi are all on the road, and then there's still Florida. You could play in Les Miles' front yard and it still won't matter. Maybe the talent level this year is better, but not enough to overcome this slate. I see an 8 win season, maybe 9 if they sneak a win from one of those three road games.
17) Virginia Tech- I've never liked Virginia Tech, but I can't argue with Frank Beemer's consistent success. I would have rated them higher, but sadly, they lost leading rusher Darren Evans (1,265) this week to a torn ACL. I also don't like Tyrod Taylor. Without the 'go' provided by Evans, this team is in serious trouble. Someone will emerge- with programs like this, someone always does, but double-digit wins may be out of reach for the Hokies, a rarity (last time they didn't hit 10 wins: 2003).
18) Boise State- Their whole season hinges on the season opener- a rare trip for a top-25 team to the blue turf (Oregon). If they win, look for them to run the table and end up in a screaming match with the Mountain West winner for a BCS slot. If not, it's back to the Poinsettia bowl with you!
19) Michigan State- Nobody -and I mean nobody- is talking about this team. Mark Dantonio has the most talent he's had since arriving on campus, and this team has won 7 and 9 games the last two years. Without Ohio State on the schedule and Penn State at home, they could very well win the conference by virtue of that silly Big-10 tiebreaker (longer drought wins? Seriously?). Javon Ringer and Brian Hoyer are big losses, but Dantonio is a talented coach that will find a way. Besides, Drew Stanton never won anything.
20) Rutgers- Before you gag, look at their schedule. It's PERFECT.
Non-conference cupcakes? Howard, FIU, Army, Texas Southern- check. Maryland isn't necessarily a cupcake, but is less than imposing.
All tough conference games at home? Defending Champ Cincinnati week 1 minus 10 starters from 2008 on defense. Pittsburgh after a week off when they're on a short week. South Florida comes to Jersey in November. West Virginia? We'll see.
By the time that last game comes around, the conference title may already be decided, and Rutgers may be playing for a top 5 ranking. Now, a national championship game appearance is out of the question, but 12-0 in the regular season with an Orange Bowl matchup? Why not?
21) Florida State- the new status quo for FSU: 8 or 9 wins, potential ACC championship game appearance. Their non-conference slate is interesting: at Florida, at BYU, home against USF. Christian Ponder is the closest thing to a QB the Seminoles have had in ages, and there's always going to be Sunday-bound talent all over the field. I just think Bowdan may have lost his touch. He can bring them in, but only because everyone knows that FSU sends an obscene amount of players to the pros- they'll always get players, but maybe those players lack direction.
22) BYU- Will only go as far as Max Hall takes them. The top of the Mountain West compares favorable with the Big East, and even perhaps the ACC. Watch for BYU to sling the ball all over the field, put up a lot of points, and allow a lot of points to teams with decent offenses. An opening game with Oklahoma in Arlington quells most BCS bowl discussion.
23) North Carolina- The ACC has a lot of depth, but not a true national title contender. Week-in, week-out, each game is going to be a headache. Butch Davis is a top-flight recruiter, bringing top talent not seen in Chapel Hill this decade... at least not on the football field. QB TJ Yates has settled in nicely as a leader, and one of these days DT Marvin Austin is going to earn his reputation. A middle-tier ACC team perhaps, but good enough to be taken seriously by the big boys now that they have a big name running the show.
24) Central Michigan- Last time I was this high on CMU, they promptly went out and got crushed by Kansas 52-7. Then again, that Kansas team was better than anyone dreamed. The last two years the Chippewas could be classified as a disappointment, having won 8 games back to back with losses in the Motor City Bowl. QB Dan LeFevour is the best player you've never seen. Tim Tebow is to ESPN what Dan LeFevour is for the regional Fox Sports crowd. Again, their nonconference schedule is "reasonable"... a game at Arizona to lead off, with U of A breaking in a new QB. Following that, a game at Michigan State. Beyond that, a game at a far worse Boston College team than you remember. 10 wins in the regular season in my opinion warrants top-25 consideration, no matter what conference you play in.
25) Wake Forest- They have perhaps the best coach in college football in Jim Grobe- if he's not the best, then nobody gets more out of less. They also get one more year out of one of the best football stories in Riley Skinner. He came out of nowhere as a freshman to lead Wake to the Orange Bowl. One last run might see them play for the ACC title. Unlikely, but they're worth a look, and as I said, nobody is better coached.
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